A Billion Dollar Prison

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Today we’re talking about the most elaborate prison designed for men: Fantasy Football.

Our good friend and subscriber Brendan made a logical case for a us to write about this, and the more we got into it, the more it made sense. The initial skepticism behind writing about the concept was ‘oh it’s an easy pipeline for casuals to start watching games because of the social connection’ yada yada.

And yes, that’s true. But this goes deeper than that. Fantasy football is a very important layer in the infrastructure of the NFL.

NOTE: If you’ve gotten this far and don’t care about fantasy football, that’s okay. We wrote this piece for people like you.

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I’m Skeptical I’ll Learn Anything

So, why does fantasy football matter? It seemingly, is an experience of no consequence other than human imagination. If you lose, if you win, there’s no real significance, right?

Right.

Until you realize you’re in a league with bloodthirsty people who crave passing judgment on how losers will be punished...

…Until you then also realize that the NFL probably loves the fact that you’re with bloodthirsty people who love fantasy football punishment (assuming they don’t love the punishment, they probably love the passion).

And then you then realize that Fantasy Football is an 11 billion dollar industry in the U.S. And that advertising tied to fantasy content is around 2-5 billion dollars annually. Not to mention that that fantasy players watch 1 or more extra games per week and 2 extra hours of NFL viewing than non-fantasy football fans.

I don’t really care about these numbers

Okay. Totally get it. Stay with us. We’re mentioning the numbers because fantasy football is a powerful indirect revenue catalyst. Over time, the compound interest of this simple activity generates hundreds of millions of dollars for the NFL over the course of a media rights deal.

Sounds Vague and Obvious

Let’s put some more numbers out there so you can frame this properly.

So, Apple and F1 are still flirting with each other on media rights. The number is something like 150 million per year.

We’re saying that fantasy football alone probably provides that much in value to the NFL over the course of a year.

Okay Great. It’s a nice Fun Fact.

Okay, you have to also realize that fantasy football dictates the NFL Schedule.

What?

This one seems dicey, but not untrue. Everyone loves drafting high usage running backs and wide receivers. Regardless of team, those players typically tend to attract above-average ratings.

Now, this is an obvious statement since most high usage players are stars (stars = eyeballs). But FF data also signals who gets picked up in case of injury, and there’s potential there for a game to be flexed in some cases.

Does the NFL look at fantasy data and say ‘flex this game’?

Absolutely not.

Could it be a contributing factor? Maybe.

But let’s not kid ourselves that the NFL doesn’t take this data seriously. There are mounds and mounds of first party data that the NFL definitely doesn’t ignore when choosing national game windows like Sunday Night Football. We can also see the direct influence of the FF audience because of the integration of fantasy-specific highlight packages.

Bottom Line?

Fantasy relevance adds another layer of relevance, particularly games between mid-tier markets that may not break the bank, ratings wise.

It also could help smooth out the ratings spread, which in turn would enhance the league’s ability to meet/exceed media partner’s targets when it comes to reach/audience.

Hmm…Okay what else?

Roger Goodell was quoted a few weeks ago as saying that the NFL’s competitors aren’t other sports, rather Apple or Google.

As someone who would encounter this tweet on the way to a doom scroll, you’d think it was delusional.

Its not.

In fact, Goodell’s quote shows an awareness of the media landscape now, in that every drop of our attention is up for grabs.

Take a look:

Platform Average Daily Time Spent (Minutes)

*Apple isn’t mentioned here because it’s a platform that doesn’t capture attention via video, but rather every day life tasks (email, texts, etc.).

So, Roger Goodell’s point—that the NFL is competing with Apple and Netflix for attention reflects reality: The NFL’s appointment-driven, event-based content draws concentrated and predictable engagement, rivaling daily streaming and social habits.

Uhh…I thought this was about fantasy football, not social media

Yes, the NFL is not social media. It’s not a constant, ever renewing source of content (although…). 36 minutes of engaged attention each day may seem trivial compared to TikTok or even Netflix.

Buut……

Fantasy Football is the second screen option that enhances engagement and fan experience across the entire viewing slate. So, platforms like Netflix and TikTok thrive on brushing grabs, while the NFL locks in longer, structured viewing sessions.

And you have to remember, that time doesn’t include locking in your lineup, flirting with the waiver wire, or wasting your afternoon getting angry about the shitty trade your older brother sent you to insult your intelligence.

Small note: If we break the viewing mechanics down, you’d realize that everyone is consuming NFL content through channels not owned by the NFL (save for ESPN and now..CBS). This means that every TV channel with NFL media rights, every fantasy app, every sports betting app, is competing for YOUR attention on how you interact with the NFL. The NFL is having all these companies basically do their work for them without assuming any of the cost. Near perfect model…

…Yes, this works for all sports, but it’s basically to point out the leverage the NFL commands.

I scrolled down too far and now I don’t want to go back and read

While everything in this piece may seem obvious to you, we can’t discount the fact that a small, but free feature of giant companies like Yahoo or ESPN drives so much engagement and money towards one of the biggest leagues in the world.

Fantasy football is more than a companion game — it’s a team-agnostic infrastructure layer that the NFL uses to stabilize and grow its audience. By making individual players as important as franchises, fantasy reduces ratings volatility and drives fans to watch games they’d normally skip. A small-market matchup suddenly matters if your RB1 or WR2 is on the field.

This what keeps people glued to NFL RedZone, primetime slates, and even low-profile Sunday games, giving the league consistent viewership across the schedule.

Simply put, it’s the best retention engine ever built.