The promise of staying in school

A lot of people say we’re witnessing a new dawn for college athletics.

We are not.

What we are seeing is the formation of a new major league sport in America: College Football.

Yes, the NCAA has a lot of athletes playing different sports, but there’s only one cash cow (maybe 2, see basketball), and the notion of making it official was all but a formality when a 2025 court ruling made it clear that schools share revenue with their student athletes.

If there was a chance for a serious NFL competitor to rise to the occasion, it would make sense that it would come from the NFL’s own success.

Mark our words when we say that within the next 5-7 years, the NFL and College Football will be competing for the same athletes. One will find ways to keep its stars for years to come, and the other will promise becoming a star at the highest level. And it’ll all boil down to one question for the star player:

What’s an extra 2-3 years at Clemson or Georgia if I’m making bank staying in school?

Let’s go.

NOTE: THERE’S A TL;DR PICTURE ON THE BOTTOM OF THIS EMAIL IF YOU’RE LOOKING TO GET THE GIST OF THINGS.

What is NIL (don’t worry it’s easy)

NIL is a mechanism through which NCAA athletes can make money with their Name, Image, or Likeness (hence, NIL). With NIL deals, colleges/universities don’t pay the players directly here. Those deals are made with private businesses.

This is however, about to change, as a 2025 court ruling (mentioned at the top) stated that schools pay their athletes up to a certain threshold of their athletic department revenue.

When it comes to NIL deals, schools can inform students of NIL opportunities but can’t make deals on behalf of an athlete.

Who funds NIL ‘deals you say?

Well, it’s the same people who paid up to programs before: boosters, donors, businesses, sponsors, etc.

Here’s a very simple way in how it all works

Student athletes get paid 2 ways now

1. NIL deals - payments for sponsoring a car dealership, brand, or maybe just playing at the school.

2. Revenue Sharing - This is payment directly by the school from the pot of the athletic department

A Day in the Life Part 1:

7 A.M. -

You’re a 5 star recruit. A senior in high school. You’re just waking up and checking your texts. You’re scrolling and you find that your teammate got an insane NIL deal from the BYU collective.

You go through email. Ah, here’s one from your agent. Someone at Clemson wants to have hold an on-campus visit with you. There’s talk of meeting some people who fund Clemson Ventures - the NIL collective.

More to follow…

NIL Guardrails (STAY WITH US , IT’S EASY)

NIL Deals are starting to become more and more structured. There are some states with laws in place regulating the way these deals get done. Other states don’t have any laws, and the NCAA usually provides guidance there.

Typically, NIL collectives are just the middlemen between boosters and athletes.

Currently, and this is really fucking concerning, there’s no law mandating transparency around who is funding these collectives.

Example: A collective named ‘Men of Westwood’ raised 2 million bucks for the school. No names given.

A Day in the Life (Part 2)

11 A.M. -

You’re a football head coach at a powerhouse program in the SEC. Email is literally blowing up your computer, filled with transfer portal updates, NIL commitments, etc.

Ah! Here’s one from the Athletic Director (AD), they finally got direction from the board on how the revenue share is going to work. The football program is getting a 60% share of the total, and he’s probably gonna ask for your input in how to split it amongst the team.

What’s in it for the donors anymore?

To be honest, this was really our first question. If i’m not benefitting financially from this, why am I in the game?

It used to be that NIL collectives were tax deductible, but not anymore. But what donor money buys now is really what it bough before: influence.

Now, they’re just going through another organization, rather than the school directly.

A Day in the Life (Part 3)

6 P.M -

You’re an AD at a school in a Power 5 conference. Hard day.

You met with the finance team on how to divvy up the athletic department’s revenue. The cap is $20.5M this year. You go back and forth with how much the cap is going to change from year to year. No use in talking about it now.

After that vigorously intellectual exercise, there was a meeting with counsel on state laws concerning NIL. Missouri and Texas just allowed schools to directly participate in NIL deals. You’re trying to figure out how to navigate the landscape in your state with no explicit laws…

You have a packed day tomorrow. You’re nervous about the tax-structure check-in meeting right after the donor sync-up. The IRS is prioritizing flagging NIL collectives. There could have been some foul play at your school. But no reason to stress since collectives aren’t listed as non-profits anymore. Wondering why we need that meeting in the first place…

Final Thought: It’s not easier to stay, but harder to leave

It’s really hard for us to look at all this money that’s now above-board and say ‘yeah, this is definitely going to keep things the same’.

If I’m someone coming out of Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, and I have a shot to be a star at a Division 1 school, obviously I’d take that opportunity at the first chance.

Then when you become a star in the program, you hear all those speeches about how many people fail to go to the NFL, or fail to stay in the NFL…

And the thought has to come to mind: Why would I risk what I have at the college level (nice tidy 750k-1m coming to me yearly), and try to delude myself into thinking I’d succeed in the NFL?

OH, BECAUSE PLAYERS WANT TO PLAY AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL AND THEY WANNA BE STARS AND HUBRIS.

No.

These guys are making money now. They can support their families. Their backs are not against the wall anymore. The privilege of clear thinking without financial worry has now become the norm.

And so let’s ask again: what’s an extra 2-3 years Clemson or Georgia?

TL;DR -

HERE’S A PICTURE IF YOU DIDN’T WANNA READ THIS FINE SUNDAY.