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F1’s success…and future failure

Formula 1 is on an upswing in the states. It makes sense. Mix equal parts adrenaline-racing activity and European corporate drama and you get Drive to Survive, the primary driver of why F1 is one of the fastest growing sporting events in this country, especially with young people.

Here’s a stat for your brain: From last year, F1 race viewership is up more than 15%, with almost a 25% increase in the 18-49 age group.

Personal story: One of us took up running. In a few short weeks one of us (cough) ended up running 5k by accident. Really. Never ran before. Hit the 5k goal by week 3. Felt energetic. FELT GREAT. We don’t know how. We don’t know why.

Another personal story: Tried running a 5k yesterday. Shin splints. Legs hurt all day. Couldn’t get past mile 1. 

By 2027, this could be the F1’s story in the U.S. open road growth, only to be shut down by its own limitations.

Why?

Let’s get into it.

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F1 and its Media Rights

So F1’s media rights are officially up for grabs.
With the sport booming in the U.S., they’re undoubtedly looking for a massive payday.

Their current deal with ESPN is around $90 million/year—pretty good.
But deep-pocketed streamers like Apple TV are circling fast.

Word is F1 and Apple are on the verge of a $150 million/year deal that would lock all U.S. games behind a paywall.

Get your rotten tomatoes ready—we’ve seen this movie.

✅ Why this deal makes sense:

• Apple needs tentpole events to keep its streaming ecosystem sticky. Sports rights + original content = classic funnel strategy.

• F1 has a loyal, affluent U.S. fanbase.
  MLS’s example: around 250,000 U.S. subscribers for its dedicated streaming service, generating ~$20 million/year at ~$85/year per fan (admittedly rough math).

• Apple has broader platform reach vs. F1 TV. Especially among younger viewers who might be enticed by Apple’s polished packaging.

• The money is unbeatable.
  A deal delivering a 65%+ boost over ESPN’s current contract? Hard to ignore from F1’s side.

❌ Why this deal sucks:

This will singlehandedly kill F1’s momentum in the U.S.
We’re not joking. Come at us if you want. Hit reply and explain why we’re wrong.

Drive to Survive was lightning in a bottle.
It cracked open racing’s drama, gave fans stories and heroes.
40% of our own friend group became F1 fans over three years—households earning over $200K.

But Drive to Survive can’t carry the sport alone forever.
You still need seats filled, merch sold, selfies snapped, and most importantly—eyeballs on Sunday mornings.

If F1 disappears behind a paywall, cultural momentum dies.
Viewership falls—from roughly 1.5 million mainstream viewers down to 600–700K.

Why those numbers? Because that’s exactly what happened to MLS after Apple TV exclusivity.

📉 What actually happened to MLS on Apple TV:

• The MLS Cup Final viewership on Fox/Fox Deportes dropped by ~47%, from 890,000 in 2023 to just 468,000 in 2024.
  

• On Apple TV—well, it’s murky. But Nielsen data pegged total Apple TV+ streaming during the MLS Cup at about 287,000, only 65,000 incremental viewers above baseline viewing, implying low unique MLS stream numbers
  

• Commissioner Don Garber stated that MLS Season Pass averages ~120,000 unique viewers per match, but this vague "unique viewers" metric spans all matches and distribution channels, not the standard average-minute audience used for broadcasters

Put simply—MLS lost mainstream visibility, and streaming numbers have been underwhelming despite an expensive Apple deal.

🧩 Why this deal might still work… for F1 (not Apple):

• F1 has a global fanbase and Drive to Survive. MLS didn’t. Losing U.S. TV ratings might hurt, but the $150M annual payout could outpace the damage in short-term relevance.

• F1 events are cultural spectacles, filled with celebrities and social media content. Even without everyone watching live, the paddock drama fuels awareness and buzz.

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  Also - if you’re here - might as well subscribe to our Threads account!

Essentially: MLS traded visibility for money—and viewers dropped like a stone. If F1 takes the same bait, they risk chopping down the very momentum that Drive to Survive helped ignite.

Our feelings on this issue are evolving. On one hand, it makes no sense to go exclusive behind a paywall (ESPN is not a paywall yet. Cable provides a bundle of channels that haven’t outlived their utility. You aren’t paying for ESPN, there are enough households that have ESPN where you don’t consider it a ‘paywall’ like you would Apple TV).

BUT ALSOOOO, the money is great. This is probably the most money F1 will get for its media rights because of what Apple is trying to do with its streaming service. While the MLS/Apple deal isn’t working for MLS…or maybe Apple too…their deal has brought every MLS team into profitability. And it still happens to be one of the highest attended sports events in the US.

That ain’t nothing. So maybe F1 will be fine.

Have a great week!