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MLB: Drama First, Business Last

As you know, we love talking about media rights in this newsletter. Nothing is more exciting to us than talking about media rights. A lot of you have followed along this newsletter because you either love media rights or love us talking about all the BS that comes along with media rights.

We’re sorry, but we’re so good at media rights…that we go viral whenever we talk about media rights.

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Why though? Probably because it’s the biggest chunk of change that a sports league can generate, and it’s always a “television landscape” shifting event. New partners come onboard, and old ones decide they’re too good to pay up and regret it just days afterward.

And the best part? The dumbest opinions rise to the top. You can really figure out who doesn’t know what they’re talking about when it comes to media rights.

Now, while we have a lot of dumb opinions sometimes. We’re pretty sharp on, you guessed it, media rights. We like the subject. We like speculation on the subject. We read the deals. We track the news.

So it comes as no surprise that we’re all over the MLB media rights drama that’s taking shape before our eyes. We like to call it an oncoming collision, but that’s just us.

Before we start, let’s put a few things out there that we’ve been thinking about the last week:

1. Mutual opt-out with ESPN on its most recent deal

2. MLB Media rights deals expiring in 2028

3. Imminent lockout in 2027

These 3 things will have a monumental effect on the MLB going forward.

MLB and ESPN: A nail in the coffin?

So, if you didn’t already know, ESPN was paying 550 million a year to the MLB for 30 regular season games and a wild card series. ESPN and MLB exercised a mutual opt out of the deal.

ESPN thought it was paying too much (we agree), and MLB was disappointed that baseball coverage had taken a backburner to other things at the network.

But Rob Manfred’s reaction to this deal was peak insecure girlfriend. He said that he was unhappy with how much ESPN scaled back its media coverage of baseball, and that there was a lot of interest from legacy and streaming media companies to obtain those rights (I have plenty of options, Dan. I’m done wasting my 30’s on this relationship).

Manfred was right, though. There was interest from other companies, namely NBC. But it turns out, the company was offering ‘significantly less’ than the 550 million dollar figure that ESPN was paying.

Now, it’s a few months later, and Manfred is…kinda showing remorse?

Look at the bolded part of the quote. It’s no secret that Manfred is trying to line up all the media rights to become available in 2028. Now, ESPN and MLB are back at the negotiating table.

ESPN knows it has the leverage. They can probably say ‘3 years is not enough for us’ and give further reasons to reduce the fee for the existing package. The figure being thrown around is somewhere in the ballpark of 200 million dollars. This leverage is most likely going to hurt rights fees benchmarks for 2028.

But guys, it’s live sports. It’s the last bastion of collective viewing…surely it won’t mean much…right? Right?

Fine. Sure. But it doesn’t help that MLB also negotiated a deal with Roku for 10 million a year for 18 Sunday games. According to that comp, the ESPN deal would probably be south of 50 million a year, which is probably why they exited the deal with MLB in the first place.

It also doesn’t help that Scott Boras (MLB superagent) has said that MLB has devalued its media rights. By the way, read the linked article when you get a chance. It perfectly encapsulates the problems we love to talk about in sports. Gives a nice chunky big picture view of things.

MLB’s impending failure: 2028 Media rights

People are watching baseball again. Really.

Last year, Sunday Night Baseball had the highest ratings since 2019, with better numbers in the 18-34 demographic. The rule changes worked.

Baseball is on the upswing at a perfect time right now. If Manfred’s plan to negotiate a 3 year deal with ESPN works, the Fox, Apple and Turner deals expire in 2028, and it’ll position baseball for open bidding on ALL of its national media rights.

This means it’s primed for a big pay day right?

Well, it’s not a wrong answer. The ambition here is get something in the ballpark of what Adam Silver and team negotiated for the NBA. But that comes with its own complications, and we talk about them here.

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MLB is not the NFL. It doesn’t negotiate all games at the national level. The MLB has local media rights too. They are usually held by RSNs.

RSNs are those cable channels or streaming services that always play your local sport. Think NESN, YES Network, Fox Sports Net, etc. They’re the reason for Blackouts, they’re also the reason for a lot of news around the country. A lot of them are failing. They don’t offer the nice chunky revenue stream for teams anymore.

MLB and (also the NBA) are aware of this, which is why MLB, with its huge sample size of games, is trying to centralize the rights to as many teams as possible.

A big problem in getting this done? The teams that matter have sweetheart deals in place. Red Sox and Yankees own their RSNs, and the Dodgers have a great decade-long deal in place.

So this is a problem, sure. But let’s put it aside for now, since there’s too much speculation on what MLB will do in 3 years in trying to centralize rights to as many games as possible.

Impending Lockout

Wow, people are really watching baseball again. Would really suck if something catastrophic were to happen, like a work-stoppage.

HAH. YUP. We’re going to have a lockout in 2027. Perfect timing if you’re trying to re-negotiate media rights (sarcasm obv.).

Let’s give the answers to the test here:

The 2027 lockout will probably be centered on whether MLB adopts a hard salary cap, along with issues like salary floors, minimum pay, and how revenue is shared. 

• Team parity vs player earnings: Owners arguing that a cap will foster competitive balance among teams; players will argue it caps their market value. This is going to get thrown around a lot, and will possibly be the subject of the dumbest takes ever.

• TV revenue pressures: Owners are seeking more TV revenue sharing solutions if local broadcast deals dry up. Also relates to the act of MLB trying to centralize rights to as many games as possible.

But all this to say: Solve this now.

There are a lot of games being played in the press currently about a deal that expires at the END OF 2026. And if MLB wants to get its media rights payday, it should do it on the back of having the last couple of HIGHEST rated seasons baseball has had in YEARS, rather than giving companies reason to doubt its potential.

Have a great week!