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The NFL is hiding the real reason behind our addiction to tuning in on Sundays.
The balanced TV product that blends drama with eye candy-like color schemes is the ‘subjective violence’ of the game. But it’s also the thing that hides and preserves the real reason behind our fixation: the structure.
…And the structure is socialism.
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The setup of the league squeezes every lost drop of narrative for an audience dying to be captivated from a summer of boredom:
All national revenue shared equally amongst teams. That’s right around 400 million dollars a year. That’s a cushion that strips of you the notion that you’re going to live and die with every season. That money allows you to be able think about how to compete with top teams on free agency, culture, coaching, or player development.
And this is why we see even great teams fall into and out of the playoffs year to year, and this is why the NFL is the lead off segment on every morning sports show, even during peak NBA playoffs.
And we can’t get enough. Ratings are up every year. Despite the NBA playoffs and World Series, the calendar year in the U.S. begins and ends with the NFL.
And it’s going to get longer.
Driving to 18 games
Listen, when the money and attention is this good, there’s only one logical choice you have to make: double down.
And that’s what the NFL plans to do in the next few years. Bring 18 games into the fold with 16 international games (one game played by each team). A lot of people will say that the main reason is to push the Superbowl back enough to hit President’s Day weekend while standardizing its global growth strategy.
And yes. That’s true.
But why now? Why not later? Why not earlier?
May I interest you in a Leverage?
The NFL signed a bunch of deals a few years ago with a few league partners and doled out media rights for billions of dollars.
Each deal has an opt-out clause in beginning in 2029. The NFL is talking about squaring away an 18 game season now so they can fatten up their position to squeeze out every last dollar they can from each rights holder for the remainder of their deals.
Makes total sense.
Right?
Players gonna Play…
This is all well and good, but there is the matter of the people who play the game.
The player’s union contract doesn’t expire in 2029, it expires in 2030. So any negotiations around an 18 game season would have to involve opening up larger negotiations in order to broach that topic.
Speculation time…
In April of 2024, Roger Goodell mentioned that an 18 game schedule would probably happen in the next 10 years.
In November of that same year, he said it’ll probably happen in the next 5 years.
That’s…2029.
Also, the fact that he narrowed it down to 5 years stems from the weakness of the NFLPA. They have a lot of leverage with that opt-out timing, but won’t fully exercise it because of appalling leadership. That’s a story for another day, though.
Ultimately the NFL’s grand plan is this:
Further improve its opt-out position with media rights holders
De-risk its eventual negotiations with the NFLPA by getting the union to agree on an 18 game schedule before the contract expires.
This 2 pronged strategy will eventually be successful, because of well, socialism.
NFL Owners are masters at colluding, blackballing, holding a collective position. They distribute their spoils (mostly) equally, so it’s logical they act as one unified body.
The same can’t be said for the rest of us. And that’s why they win.
What’s going to happen after 2029?
Once the 18 game schedule is squared away, the next mountain to climb will be to sign new media rights deals, with another chance at opting out right in the middle of the deal.
…aaaand just before then, there’ll be talk of adding a 19th game, or another week of football somehow…
anything to help us cope with the “banality” of summer.
Have a great week!
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