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The Paywall Problem: What F1 Can Learn From MLS’s Apple TV Experiment
A lot of people say streaming deals are the future of sports.
They might be wrong.
What we’re witnessing isn’t innovation—it’s a massive bet that guaranteed money today is worth sacrificing mainstream relevance tomorrow. And MLS just gave us the blueprint for what happens when you put a growing sport behind a paywall.
F1 is next in line. Apple is reportedly closing in on an exclusive streaming deal that would move Formula 1 from ESPN (free with cable) to Apple TV+ (another subscription you don’t want to pay for).
The question no one is asking: Is this the death of F1’s American growth story?
Let’s look at what actually happened to MLS. The numbers don’t lie, but they tell a complicated story.
Let’s go.
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The MLS Disaster (Or Is It?)
In 2023, MLS signed a 10-year, $2.5 billion deal with Apple TV+. That’s $250 million per year, guaranteed. No matter how many people watch. No matter how bad the product gets.
For context: that’s way more than their previous fragmented deals with ESPN, Fox, and local networks combined.
Sounds great, right?
Here’s what happened to viewership:
2022 (on ESPN): 343,000 average viewers per game
2025 (on Apple TV+): 120,000 average viewers per game
That’s a 65% drop.
The 2024 MLS Cup Final—the championship game, the pinnacle of the season—had record-low viewership. During the MLS Cup time slot, Apple TV+ averaged just 287,000 viewers across all its programming.
And it gets worse.
About 33% of FIFA World Cup fans say the Apple TV paywall prevents them from watching MLS. That’s potentially 60 million American soccer fans priced out of the sport.
But Wait, There’s a Twist
Here’s where it gets interesting. While TV viewership collapsed, something else exploded: social media.
MLS social media engagement in 2024:
400 million social interactions (up 230% from previous season)
3X increase in video views
Record attendance: 11.5 million fans showed up to games
So people care about MLS. They just won’t pay to watch it on TV.
They’ll watch highlights. They’ll engage with TikTok clips. They’ll show up to stadiums.
But $99/year for Apple TV+?
Nah.
What This Means for F1
F1 is in a different position than MLS, but the parallels are concerning.
F1’s advantages:
Way bigger baseline: 1.2 million viewers per race (vs MLS’s 343k per game)
Fewer events: 23 races per year (vs MLS’s 400+ matches)
Already has a dedicated streaming service: F1 TV costs $85/year and hardcore fans love it
International powerhouse with global appeal
F1’s problems:
US viewership growth has already started to flatten
Apple reportedly wants F1 to shut down F1 TV as part of the deal
Moving from free ESPN to paid Apple TV+ hits the same casual fan problem
F1 races are 2+ hours—harder to make viral social clips than a 10-second goal
The Money Question: Is This Actually Good Business?
Short answer: It depends on your timeline.
For the Next 5-10 Years: YES. MLS is making way more guaranteed money. F1 would too.
Current F1 deal (ESPN): ~$90 million/year
What F1 is asking for: $150-180 million/year
What Apple might pay: More than that (they outbid ESPN)
For team owners and commissioners, this is simple math. Guaranteed revenue > ratings-dependent revenue. Don’t have to worry about bad seasons, controversial moments, or competing with other sports.
For the Next 10+ Years: RISKY
Here’s the problem with sacrificing mainstream visibility: What happens when casual fans can’t discover your sport?
Kids don’t stumble onto races channel-surfing
Sports bars don’t show your content
You lose “water cooler moments” in culture
Sponsors pay less because fewer people see their logos
The next media rights deal might be worth less
MLS Commissioner Don Garber calls the Apple deal “one of the greatest in sports history.” Maybe he’s right. Or maybe he’s celebrating short-term cash while the sport becomes culturally irrelevant.
Remember those crazy MLS social media numbers? The 230% increase in engagement?
Here’s the brutal truth: It doesn’t matter. Social media does NOT pay the bills. Viewership from television does.
Why sponsors care about TV viewers, not TikTok likes:
Sponsors pay for eyeballs on their ads during games, not engagement on highlight clips
Social media doesn’t generate direct revenue at the same scale as broadcast deals
Conversion rates are terrible: Someone liking a post doesn’t buy merchandise or tickets like someone watching a full race does
Brand value erosion: Less mainstream visibility = lower sponsorship rates next time
For F1 specifically, this is even more critical. The sport’s business model relies heavily on:
Sponsorship deals (those logos on cars and tracks need viewers)
Circuit hosting fees (tracks pay F1 because it brings exposure)
Team sponsors (who need viewership numbers to justify their investment)
The Real Gamble
Both MLS and F1 are betting on the same thing: That streaming will become so mainstream in the next decade that being on Apple TV+ is the same as being on ESPN.
Maybe that happens. Maybe Apple TV+ becomes as ubiquitous as Netflix. Or maybe it doesn’t, and we look back in 2035 wondering why F1 traded its moment of mainstream American popularity for a decade of guaranteed checks.
What About F1 TV?
Here’s a critical detail: Apple reportedly wants F1 to shut down F1 TV as part of the deal. F1 TV is beloved by hardcore fans. It costs $85/year and gives you:
Ad-free access to every session (practice, qualifying, race)
Driver onboard cameras
Team radio communications
Multiple viewing angles
These features are what separate dedicated F1 fans from casual viewers. If Apple kills F1 TV and doesn’t offer these features, you’ve just alienated your most passionate fanbase—the people most likely to actually pay for a streaming service.
The Bottom Line
For F1 team owners and Liberty Media (F1’s parent company): This is a classic “bird in the hand vs. two in the bush” situation. Take the guaranteed $150-180 million per year from Apple, or bet on continued growth with ESPN’s broader reach for $90 million?
From a pure business standpoint, the Apple money is better. Guaranteed revenue, control over distribution, direct subscriber relationships.
But here’s what they’re risking:
The entire American growth story that made F1 valuable in the first place came from accessibility. Drive to Survive on Netflix (free with subscription most people already have) plus races on ESPN (free with cable) created the boom.
Now they want to put it behind another paywall right as growth is flattening?
The MLS precedent is clear:
- ✅ You’ll get paid more
- ✅ Your hardcore fans will follow you
- ✅ Your social media might even grow
- ❌ Your casual viewership will crater
- ❌ Your mainstream cultural relevance will fade
- ❌ Your next generation of fans won’t discover you by accident
A burning question that needs to be asked
What’s two more years of ESPN exposure worth if you’re Liberty Media?
If the sport continues growing on accessible TV, maybe that $90 million per year ESPN deal becomes a $200 million deal in 2028. Maybe NBC or Fox gets in a bidding war. But if you lock into Apple now and viewership drops 65% like MLS, what’s the 2035 deal worth?
Mark our words: In 5-7 years, we could see F1 become irrelevant yet again in the U.S.
So while the sports media landscape is littering the field with cautionary tales, and the MLS just took its place in that pantheon again…
F1 might be next.
Have a great week!
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