The NFL is in a really weird position right now for all the things it wants to do. On one hand, it needs to expand the season to 18 games, build out a foreign games package to spin off to Netflix. On the other hand, it also needs to figure out what to do with its biggest game in February (do we move it to President’s day weekend? Etc.).

We think they’ve figured out both of these things. Let’s talk about the ‘what’ and the ‘when’.

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@ahmedmeetssports

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The ‘What’: The NFL’s Odyssey of moving to 18 Games

The following has been on the tongue of every sports media insider for the last 5 years:

18 games, 2 bye weeks, President’s day weekend for the NFL Final.

Now, with a recently signed media rights deal (2021), a new deep-pocketed partner in Netflix, and the 2026 Winter Olympics on the horizon, the NFL now sees a path to all those things.

It’s already kicked off conversations in modifying the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) with the NFLPA in moving to 18 games. This will most likely result in the following:

1. 2 Bye Weeks

2. A 2-3% increase in revenue sharing with the players

   1. They share about 48% of revenue with players currently, 18 games would probably go to 50-51%.

The ‘When’: 2026 Winter Olympics are in the way

Prediction time: The NFL will move to an 18 game schedule in 2027.

The Winter Olympics are taking place in the month of February 2026. This overlaps perfectly with the final boss of NFL storylines coming to a head. The NFL is a behemoth in this country that can certainly withstand any competition thrown in its way. But it’s gotten that way because it’s been very deliberate with any major changes.

So it’s logical to assume that the league wants a clean runway when it (finally) expands the schedule and stretches out its final game to the weekend before President’s day.

This will also provide an appropriate window for the following:

1. NFL on-field and off-field operations to prepare properly (players, coaches, front office)

2. Easier transition to revenue sharing modifications between the NFLPA and Team Owners

3. Non-Football Stadium event bookings

4. New Sponsorship deals with the added game

Oh, and Roger Goodell also said that it expects to expand to 18 games within the next 5 years.

The NFL also expects to expand the 5 game international schedule to 16 games with the new 18 game schedule.

That means 2 big things:

1. the NFL will become all-day viewing

2. The NFL is now saddled with a package of games it can sell for another windfall

This package is most likely going to go to Netflix. The partnership makes too much sense. The NFL is looking for a precedent setting price for these games. Netflix has deep pockets and a mandate to create shareholder value with live sports.

How much money does an 18th week generate for the NFL?

Doing some half-assed math: The league would generate ~760 Million dollars with an 18th week of football.

Let’s break it down:

• Gate Receipts: 360 Million

  • 50,000 seats with a $120 a seat = 6 million (360 million if we’re looking at 16 stadiums)
    
    

• Concessions: ~ 32 million

  • 2 Million per stadium (multiplied by 16 stadiums)
    
    

• Parking: ~16 Million

  • 1 million each for 16 games
    
    

• Ad Revenue: ~352 million dollars

  • Average NFL game makes 22 million in ad revenue. Multiply that by 16 games = 352 million dollars (on ad revenue alone).

Re-iterating that this is HALF-ASSED MATH. This doesn’t include sponsorship deals or any other local revenue individual teams might generate.

Have a great week!

Ahmed and Peter